Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 88929.079514 93819.915193 98710.269524 103963.712668 109444.126622 114989.319889 121020.767186
2025-11-16 81118.248680 88599.573473 96288.495176 104771.234915 113856.922645 123286.142908 133801.301332
2025-11-23 74961.129481 84156.171719 93813.146381 104690.724463 116581.002505 129162.273458 143459.881804
2025-11-30 71231.138494 81811.785435 93124.236444 106084.973836 120488.291562 135968.260010 153827.438644
2025-12-07 67929.959676 79600.928612 92276.051550 107014.496227 123628.943633 141726.171224 162875.499468
2025-12-14 64550.886598 77045.391973 90810.453633 107032.768333 125557.135748 145978.741487 170120.318469
2025-12-21 61768.680595 74981.627867 89730.251457 107325.748397 127654.071728 150308.451265 177366.968467
2025-12-28 60054.485593 74027.829081 89811.304527 108849.990054 131076.792635 156087.189503 186234.252883
2026-01-04 58290.870612 72908.734330 89606.757849 109958.880499 133953.289097 161197.320263 194317.534856
2026-01-11 56466.093987 71621.332899 89120.383869 110660.960798 136293.988512 165647.722986 201619.859525
2026-01-18 54521.954173 70101.588940 88279.083514 110869.436865 137993.116349 169308.276461 207978.529281
2026-01-25 52795.569693 68771.116385 87596.990229 111206.574095 139795.183494 173056.796001 214427.127566
2026-02-01 50971.545722 67270.965589 86671.482611 111223.767836 141205.907071 176356.554270 220388.741776
2026-02-08 49862.481486 66613.838867 86737.990455 112420.691418 144027.828287 181344.354538 228394.900485
2026-02-15 48223.756039 65231.729770 85858.231446 112407.375896 145338.723907 184494.657099 234188.663999
2026-02-22 47417.987181 64869.034532 86214.400874 113900.439813 148485.047504 189867.680700 242695.161754
2026-03-01 46425.046457 64227.361029 86187.862674 114888.889846 150991.715220 194460.615205 250270.071421
2026-03-08 45040.454024 63032.850254 85421.257305 114908.929508 152264.445299 197526.051700 255974.463417
2026-03-15 43860.891906 62066.166257 84909.197975 115219.601180 153877.466729 200999.038221 262184.706508
2026-03-22 43320.948776 61918.460714 85429.639452 116835.039273 157132.282047 206516.101942 270953.966327
2026-03-29 42619.662398 61530.820730 85619.124488 118010.112121 159822.902657 211337.521251 278882.754536
2026-04-05 41769.941628 60916.604232 85489.973617 118754.028648 161952.743273 215457.879885 285952.338424
2026-04-12 40742.053947 60030.984295 84977.521255 118974.918028 163394.431374 218705.902826 291933.982571